Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 71% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 64% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 57% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i | 55% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 35.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 37.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 41.5 | 27% |
| New Mexico O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 53.5 | 23% |
| O/U 55.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| New Mexico O/U 23.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 39.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -11.5 | 18% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 43.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| Spread -15.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 45.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -18.5 | 8% |
| O/U 47.5 | 7% |
| O/U 49.5 | 7% |
| Spread -28.5 | 6% |
| O/U 51.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -30.5 | 4% |
| Spread -27.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| O/U 57.5 | 3% |
| O/U 63.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
New Mexico vs. Hawai'i — current market-implied probability: 71%. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico and Hawai'i, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game. This market will reso…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $217K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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